Those who know that they don't know might know the most

On April 15th 1995, in Pittsburgh, USA, word broke about two bank robberies that took place in broad daylight. And the gang that orchestrated the robberies wasn’t a gang at all; it was merely one man, McArthur Wheeler. So confident was the bank robber, on one of his escapades he strutted into the bank with no disguise and his face clearly visible, pointed a gun at a teller before being handed his prize, and strutted right back out again while looking up and smiling at the CCTV cameras. He thought he’d gotten away with the most literal form of daylight robbery.

Wheeler was arrested later that night. When he was shown the CCTV recording by police, he was aghast; “But I wore the juice,” he claimed. Wheeler had apparently thought that he had expertly camouflaged himself by layering his body with lemon juice, rendering himself invisible. His thoughts were that lemon juice, which is occasionally used as makeshift invisible ink, would be the ideal disguise in which to deftly carry out a robbery.

We, as human beings, all have our blind spots. We make mistakes, though admittedly few are more catastrophic - or embarrassing - than McArthur Wheeler’s venture. In fact, this event spurred a psychology professor, David Dunning, and a psychology graduate, Justin Kruger, to investigate the motives of this event further. In doing so, they established a well-known psychological phenomenon: The Dunning-Kruger Effect.

Naïve confidence

After some experimentation, the two psychologists found that while people generally hold favourable views of their own abilities in various activities, many tend to greatly inflate their self-assessment if they are objectively of relatively low ability. In other words, if a person recently took up chess, they may think they were a lot better than they actually were; whereas someone who has been playing for a few years may assess their chess skills more accurately.

That said, the Dunning-Kruger Effect has been questioned of late. The rigour behind the original experiment may not have been all that tightly controlled, and the statistical analysis employed to gather findings may have been oversimplified. Instead, the results may have reflected the human tendency to engage in the ‘overconfidence bias’, which is simply a tendency for people to overestimate their ability in general. For example, in asking a group of individuals to assess their intelligence, studies have shown that the average of all self-assessments of IQ fails to equate to 100, as it should – it usually averages at around 115.

Modesty as a means to succeed

Whether you support the Dunning-Kruger Effect or not, the lesson is still a pertinent one: we ought to be humble and prudent when we embark upon a new venture. Furthermore, the underlying questions are still of interest. Why exactly do people overestimate their ability? And why did McArthur Wheeler strut into two banks that day and commit robberies in each while wearing an all-over body suit of lemon juice?

Well, as mentioned, people overestimate their own skill levels. Moreover, they might fail to comprehend the genuine expertise of other people in their new domain, and also fail to realise their own errors or lack of skill in comparison to those of higher ability. The other explanation (which is unlikely to be the case for Wheeler) is that this could be an intentional response to feelings of inferiority. It's been shown that lower-skilled people tend to include more job-specific and esoteric jargon in their speech than those of higher skill, simply as a mechanism to be perceived by others as more competent than they actually are. In either case, the individual is masquerading as someone who is of a higher ability, which can be damaging to their development, mental wellbeing and reputation in the long run.

Tips, thanks to Dunning, Kruger, and Wheeler

Embarking on a new journey - be it a job, a hobby, or a relationship - will place us in a position of relative unknown. We need to learn and adapt. We need to gather knowledge and understand how to navigate new situations effectively, sometimes very quickly. Extracted from the contributions of McArthur Wheeler, David Dunning and Justin Kruger, we have a few strategies to help you do just that:

1. Increase your own self-awareness

   Self-awareness is a fundamental skill, especially helpful in times of change or ambiguity. If we know ourselves well, at least we have one anchor of certainty. Self-awareness of our preferences, emotional states, behavioural proclivities, and triggers enables greater emotional and behavioural management. And better emotional and behavioural management enables us to remain in a positive, grounded mindset, which is a hugely receptive mindset for change, learning and adaptability!

   
   

2. Get support from others

   Feedback is perhaps one of the most vital and valuable tools through which we can gather information. We might think we're doing a brilliant job, only to learn through feedback from colleagues that it's not quite as good as we thought. It can be sobering, but it keeps us on track and we adapt and improve according to more objective, external perspectives. Of course, the opposite can happen too - we may think we're not doing so good, when others think we're exceeding expectations!

   
   

3. Leverage your curiosity

   You might agree that the opposite of a curious mindset is a closed, headstrong mindset. The latter is great for a debate; you can deliver your messages confidently and persuade listeners of your expertise. It's not so good, however, when you don't know much about a subject. Instead, a curious mind is something we ought to cultivate: ask questions ("why", "how", "what if", for example), listen intently, and build understanding. You'll upskill and familiarise yourself much quicker that way.

   
   

4. Be modest

   The research indicates that modesty is linked with more positive impressions and higher likeability in work. Modest leaders are also more often deemed as effective leaders. It seems to be a generally all-round rewarding trait! And the same applies in new situations - modesty helps us to not only ground ourselves, remaining steady and clear-headed, but it helps attract allies, friends, and social support, too. And this makes our journey much easier to navigate.