Confidence tricksters: what they don't tell you about self-belief

Which of the following quotes resonates most with you?

“If we can dream it, we can do it.”

“There are no beautiful surfaces without a terrible depth.”

The first is a well-known quote by American Disney executive Tom Fitzgerald, although it’s often mis-attributed to Walt Disney himself.  It glows with radiance and positivity. The second is by German philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche, which speaks of uncertainty and hardship.

It may be that both quotes resonate with you but it’s likely that the first will have had a greater impact on most people. Why? Because we live in an era where confidence is key. The modern philosophy is: if you have self-confidence that you can do something, you’ll be able to do it.

Indeed, confidence provides an internal drive for us to look forward and succeed in achieving our ambitions. It helps us cope with difficulties, empowers us to recover from setbacks and helps us persevere when the going gets tough.

What does confidence say about us?

Confidence also has an outward impact on how others perceive us. Research has shown that when we demonstrate confidence, this leads others to surmise that we are trustworthy, capable and credible. Think, for example, of two individuals delivering a presentation. One has confidence, while the other is lacking. Who do you expect might deliver their speech more effectively and which might get more buy-in and support afterwards?

Another study looked at the effect of nonverbal confidence and message quality on viewers’ evaluations of politicians. Participants were asked to watch short clips of various politicians delivering a speech. Interestingly, while both higher nonverbal confidence and higher message quality increased a candidate’s perceived qualifications for the role, nonverbal confidence had a much higher impact than message quality when determining a candidate’s electability.

Can you be too confident?

Confidence, then, is important to secure positive first impressions. However, questions understandably arise when confidence drifts into overconfidence. And this overconfidence, a state of being too certain of our capabilities or chances of success, may be more commonplace than we think.

One well-chronicled demonstration of overconfidence is our tendency to engage in the better-than-average bias. Consider, for example, that 65% of Americans believe they are more intelligent than average, while 90% of people rate their driving abilities as better than average. A majority of people even believe they are less susceptible than average to the better-than-average bias! Statistically speaking, it is, of course, impossible for such a large majority to be smarter, better drivers, and less susceptible to bias than average.

Considering how easy it is to unconsciously elevate ourselves into overconfidence, there are other issues. The mantra, ‘fake it ‘til you make it’, encourages putting on of an act of confidence to achieve a goal, even if you don’t have the skills or knowledge to back it up, with the expectation that eventually it will come true. But the long-term effects of unsubstantiated confidence, or overconfidence, can be hazardous.

What do they say about pride coming before a fall?

Overconfident entrepreneurs often showcase the dangers as some researchers found when they followed the growth of 203 independent small firms. They found that while entrepreneur overconfidence was useful at gaining support and buy-in during the start-up phase (short-term), it was also strongly predictive of overreaching and unrealistic forecasts, firm failure, and negative outcomes for its employees (long-term).

In a similar vein, narcissistic leaders are often judged to be successful in the short-term, but will often encounter a fall from grace once peers find out that that (over)confidence isn’t backed up with actual competence and capability. Deliberately dialling up our confidence levels too high may therefore be counterproductive. Well-founded confidence (or confidence that matches one’s competence and capability) serves leaders much better over the longer-term.

Confidence can also be specific; just because we’re skilled and confident in one area doesn’t mean we can’t be lower in confidence when unskilled in another area. Confidence needn’t be all-encompassing, and this perspective may lead to better self-awareness and more accurate personal development. What’s more, humility about one’s achievements has been found to lead to increased likeability.

Like many assets, confidence is a double-edged sword. Its benefits are well-documented already, but its dangers are less broadcast. Unfortunately, it seems to be human nature to unwittingly slip into states of overconfidence from time to time. And while putting on a strut and raising our voices may boost our impressions in the short-term, it can backfire long-term, creating a bigger deficit from which to recover than if we’d adopted a more modest approach in the first place. Our confidence should instead be treated and honed carefully, supported by actual capability, and monitored a little more closely. This is the real key to confidence and our subsequent successes.